February 23, 2012

End of the Stretch IRA?

End of Stretch IRACurrently pending is Congress in a harmless sounding bill entitled “Highway Investment, Job Creation And Economic Growth Act of 2012.” Buried deep within the bill is a bit of stealth legislation that would kill the concept of the stretch IRA.

The stretch IRA (we also call these an “Inherited IRA”) is a planning concept that has been well-used for years now. It allows the beneficiaries of an IRA, like children and grandchildren, to take the IRA over their life expectancy thereby reducing the income taxes on each distribution and allowing the IRA to keep growing. Before IRAs were allowed to be stretched, or inherited, the non-spouse beneficiary had to take the entire IRA out -and pay all the taxes, within five years.

So, a little known bill has a provision hidden deep inside that will make a huge change to the estate planning of most Americans -and nobody knows a thing about it.

This travesty has been recommended by Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D., Mont.). Under the proposed legislation, starting for deaths next year, most nonspouse inheritors would need to withdraw the entire amount from a traditional IRA within five years. In other words, no more stretch. There’s an exception for a beneficiary who is: disabled; chronically ill; not more than 10 years younger than the employee or IRA owner; or a child who is a minor. Try and imagine the red-tape involved in trying to convince the IRS that a particular beneficiary is “chronically ill.” No, once this happens the stretch will be gone for good.

Another exception would be for Roth IRAs. But, of course, a stretch for these makes no particular sense because no taxes have to be paid on distributions anyway. There is no indication why the Democrat side of Congress thinks this is necessary. Does it have something to do with Evil Rich People? Who knows what goes through the mind of a Congressman these days. The only certain thing is that Congress seems to be focused on punishing those of who save over our lifetimes. It is far past the time that Congress needs a further shake-up message from the voters. Hopefully, that message will be loud and clear in November. Things need to be changed from the top on down.

The Market in Election Years

Welcome to 2012, an “election year”!  Be prepared to read up on how this should be a good year for the stock market.  But will it?

Historically, election years tend to be pretty good for the stock market.  The chart below tells the story since 1928:

Source:  http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howtoinvest/a/electionmarket.htm

As you can see, the market made money in all election years with the exception of three.  (I’ve highlighted the down years in red for you.)  And boy did it have a terrific run until the 2000′s came along!

However, the 2000′s brought us a very different result than expected.  Markets haven’t cooperated as they were supposed to.  What’s going on here?  And what will the future bring?

Behavioral psychologists tell us that the human mind automatically looks for patterns, even when they don’t exist.  As an example, one study charted the results of flipping a coin and then told stock market analysts that the chart was of the movement of a stock (heads meant a day “up” and tails was a day “down”).  Stock analysts had no trouble coming up with predictions as to what would happen to this “stock” in the future.  The clear lesson is that even though there was obviously no pattern, stock analysts found one anyway.  (source:  A Random Walk Down Wall Street – Burton Malkiel.)

Here’s the point: some advisors have suggested to clients that an election year is a good time to jump into the market since they see a pattern of election years being good for the market. The trouble is, now there are two election years that were terrible for investors. It makes a person wonder if perhaps this “election year” idea is just another one of those random patterns that, as humans, we naturally look for even when one doesn’t exist.  So what will the markets do in 2012?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I sure wouldn’t rely on this being an election year as the basis for any decisions.

Create your own pension

412(i) retirement plansVery few people are aware of the attractive provisions of IRS-approved 412(i) plans. Never heard of a 412(i)? That is because only experts in the field of income and asset planning know how to use these plans.

Over the years most employers have gotten away from defined benefit plans for their employees to 401(k) and similar plans. With the defined benefit plan, the employee was guaranteed an amount of income for retirement. With a 401(k), there are no guarantees -you get whatever the 401(k) investments will produce at retirement. In other words, you now take all the risk that there will be enough there for a retirement.

Now, a 412(i) plan is more like a defined benefit plan since it guarantees an amount of retirement income -and the income is guaranteed lifetime. As a matter of fact, these plans come under the control of ERISA as a defined benefit plan, so they have the additional benefit of being protected from creditors under federal law.

Who can benefit from these plans? The ideal candidate is someone who self-employed or owns their own small business and compensates himself/herself fairly highly. Ideally, the person should be between the ages of 40 and 75 or perhaps 15 or so years from a planned retirement, regardless of age.  Further, the person should have few employees since there are employee participation rules.

Given the right circumstances, someone around age 50 who pays (or should pay) themselves around $200,000 per year could perhaps put $70,000 (or even more) into a 412(i) each year until retirement. The amount of retirement income available for a lifetime would be known at the time the plan is put together and would be a guaranteed amount.

Pros. This is an ideal method to get money fast into a retirement plan. It is also ideal as an asset protection strategy since large amounts can be removed from creditor actions. There are no limitations on the amount that can be contributed each year and they cannot be overfunded or underfunded which could result in IRS penalties with some other types of plans.

Cons. Most employees have to participate in the plan, although they can certainly be arranged in such a way that the person contributing gets the lion’s share. The relative ages of the employees is also important. This is not an issue for someone without employees or where the employees are persons that you would want to share in the benefit.

The biggest fear of retirement

Of course, everyone knows the biggest fear that retirees have: dying broke.

According to the accounting firm of Ernst & Young and the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, a household relying on income from Social Security and from $300,000 or less in savings has a 90% of going broke.

How does this happen? According to the research it is a combination of things, but mostly it boils down to unexpected expenses and increasing income on depreciating assets. That is just a fancy way of saying that every time you need money above income, you reduce your assets. And, every time you reduce your assets, you reduce your income because there are fewer assets available to produce income.

Now, here is the big question: is there anything that can be done about this? The answer is YES. It can often be as simple as taking a portion of the existing assets and turning them into lifetime guaranteed income to supplement the Social Security income. When sufficient assets are devoted to producing income, the need to tap into other assets is greatly reduced. We have seen from experience that the odds of going broke can be flipped to a 90% chance of never going broke rather than a 90% chance of outliving assets.

How can anyone guarantee lifetime income?

There are only two places you can go in the United States to get income that is guaranteed to be payable for your lifetime.

One is Social Security provided by the U.S. government, and the other is legal reserve insurance companies.

Social Security is guaranteed only to the extent Congress keeps it’s word on the guarantees. We have already seen the promise that Social Security would be a separate trust fund broken and we have seen the promise that Social Security income would never be taxed broken. It is a hard fact that the rules can be changed any time Congress wants to change the rules. Insurance companies, on the other hand, have to honor the terms of the contract they make with you -they are not free to change things the way Congress can.

Those are the two choices. Nothing else can guarantee a stream of income that will live as long as you do. Stocks, bonds, CDs, mutual funds, or anything else you can name cannot provide lifetime income on a guaranteed basis.

Guaranteed lifetime income from an insurance company -what we call a private pension, is also the perfect supplement to Social Security. If SS income is not, or will not, be enough for you to live on, then a private pension is the answer to increasing lifetime income. It is very simple to calculate exactly how much income you can receive lifetime for an amount of money put into a private pension. Plus, there are numerous other advantages, like safety, creditor protection, predictable growth, and tax deferral.

Buffett must read our Prosperity Report

Warren BuffettI don’t like to recommend stocks, but in the October 26 edition of our newsletter the Prosperity Report, I said the following when asked whether there are stocks I recommend:

“Yes, I do at times. With any stock, it is basically a gamble. However, you can sometimes find bargain prices on stocks with strong fundamentals. At his point people will usually say “OK. Give us an example.”

There are probably quite a few bargain stocks right now, but I happen to like IBM. It is currently trading at $173.32 -up $3.92 for the day, but is still a good buy and worth watching. By way of disclaimer, I own IBM stock myself.”

Two weeks later, on November 10th or so, Warren Buffet announced that he had just purchased over $10 billion of IBM stock for his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. Makes me wonder whether he read the Prosperity Report to get his advice!

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Retirement in Louisiana

Retirement in Louisiana book cover

Retirement in Louisiana, cover

As you may know, we have been very successful over the last dozen years with our book, the Louisiana Legal Advisor which is in it’s Fourth Edition. It is now time to bring out a new book, one that I think is very badly needed in Louisiana. The title, as you can see from the cover of the book, is Retirement in Louisiana.

I think this book is long overdue. For quite a few years now the State of Louisiana has been taking positive legislative action to attract retirees to Louisiana. How many of you even know what new laws have been passed to your benefit? There are also areas of Louisiana that have been certified as ideal retirement communities. Can any of you name those areas?

And what about the laws that have been passed that protect retirement accounts from creditor actions? There are some laws that approach amazing that protect life insurance proceeds, annuities, IRAs and similar accounts from creditor actions -and that include suits by litigation happy plaintiffs!

Yes, there are many good reasons to be retired in Louisiana, and we now have a book to explain those reasons.

It is in production and, with some luck, will be available this Spring.

Income is the Outcome

Going after investment returns is the wrong way to look at retirement investing. Returns mean nothing.

Everyone seems to be looking for getting 7% “return” on their money. Here is why returns mean nothing, and let’s look at an actual case we have:
Bob and Sue had $1 million in their retirement portfolio. In good years they had a 7% return, which they felt good about. They felt especially good since they were taking out 5% per year for income -about $50,000 per year.

And then 2007/2008 hit and the investments that were giving them a 7% return were now worth about $500,000. Now, what do you suppose happens when you keep taking $50,000 out of investments that are now worth $500,000? That’s right, you’re taking a withdrawal of 10% per year which is a recipe for going broke -and doing it fast.

Of course, Bob and Sue could also reduce their income to $25,000 which would bring them back to a 5% withdrawal. By the way, how did Bob and Sue come up with the 5% withdrawal rate in the first place? Because their broker told them it was a safe rate and that their nest egg would still grow safely at a 5% withdrawal rate. Study after study has shown that a 5% withdrawal rate has a 30% chance of leaving you broke during retirement.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to have a guaranteed return of income of 5% of your investments rather than any withdrawal rate that may or may not work? Of course it would -especially if the guarantee was lifetime for both spouses.

That is why we say that a return rate is meaningless as long as the return is calculated against an asset that can shrink or even disappear. What you really want in retirement is cash flow -income- not return. It is income that allows you to live the lifestyle you want to live in retirement.

Our own prediction is for a flat, stagnant market in this decade with inflation starting to become a serious problem in the next few years. If that turns out to be true, return rates are going to become even more meaningless than they are now.

Depending on age and other circumstances, we have been able to get a 6% guaranteed return of income for our clients from their investments. Call and ask me how.

The outcome of good retirement planning is income.

Women and Investing

Successful woman in retirementFour Mistakes Women Make Managing Their Money.

 

Most of the time, you manage your money successfully, handling your day-to-day finances and saving and investing for the future. But nobody’s perfect. Even if you’ve made some of the following money mistakes, there’s plenty you can do to get your finances back on track.

Mistake #1: Ignoring your credit rating

One of the most common mistakes women make is not establishing a solid credit history. Having a good credit history will give you more–and often better–financial options. Lenders will review your credit history when deciding whether to extend you credit. If your credit history is good, you may be offered credit at more advantageous terms, potentially saving you hundreds or even thousands of dollars in interest. And here’s some extra incentive: prospective employers or landlords may check your credit history before offering you a job or renting you a home. Here are some ways you can help keep your credit history healthy:

  • Regularly check your credit history. You’re entitled to a free credit report once a year from each of the three major credit reporting bureaus. To request your report, call 877-322-8228 or visit www.annualcreditreport.com.
  • Don’t cosign loans or sign joint credit applications without understanding the consequences. You will be legally obligated to repay the debt, and any late payments may hurt your credit rating.
  • If you struggle with debt, don’t wait to take action. Call your creditors. They may be better able to work with you before you get too far behind. Ignoring the situation will make things worse.

Mistake #2: Saving for your child’s education–but not your own retirement

As a parent, you may feel it’s your obligation to pay for all or part of your child’s college education, and you may put off saving for retirement until you’ve done so. While it’s natural to want to put your child’s needs first, you don’t want to sacrifice your own financial security. Your children have many options for financing college, and many years to pay for it. On the other hand, you can’t borrow money for retirement, and with a limited number of years to save, it’s hard to make up for lost time. Make saving for retirement your priority, and save for college when your budget allows.

Mistake #3: Underestimating the need for life insurance

Like many women, you may not have enough life insurance. If you’re staying home to raise your family or if you have a part-time job outside the home, you may think that you don’t need it, based on your income. But you’re contributing a lot to your family’s finances, even if you’re not the primary breadwinner. The services you provide for your family are invaluable. If you were to die, would your family members be able to afford college or continue to save for retirement? Would they have enough to cover ordinary living expenses? Life insurance can help protect your family’s finances even after you’re gone.

Mistake #4: Not planning for a long retirement

The good news is that retirement is likely to last 20 to 30 years, but that’s also the bad news–if you’re not prepared. Outliving your retirement income is one of the biggest risks you face. According to recent statistics, a woman who reaches age 65 can expect to live until at least age 85 (with many women living longer). (Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Volume 56, Number 16.) Yet because women typically spend less time in the workforce and may earn less than their male counterparts, their retirement savings and benefits are often shortchanged.

So what can you do to make sure you’ll have enough income to last throughout retirement? Here are some suggestions:

  • Set a realistic retirement savings goal, save as much as you can, and keep track of your progress.
  • If you’re married, plan for retirement with your spouse. It’s especially important to account for your joint life expectancies and ensure that you have a steady stream of lifetime income.
  • Find out how much you can expect to receive from Social Security, and what you can do to maximize your benefits.
  • Consider buying long-term care insurance to help protect your retirement savings from the high cost of long-term care. And because women are often the primary caregivers for a loved one, consider coverage for family members as well.
  • Take into account the higher taxes you will likely have to pay. We see this almost every day. Most women do not plan for the fact that they will be filing singly, not jointly. This can instantly bump you to a higher bracket.

Income Drawdown

The biggest threat to a successful retirement is income drawdown -increasing income on a depreciating asset.

It is easier to explain the income drawdown concept with some examples. Suppose you have $350,000 in savings and you will soon have Social Security rolling in. Suppose further that your financial advisor has told you that you can safely take 5% per year from your investments without a problem and that with a 5% rate of withdrawal, your investments will continue to grow to cover inflation. Sound familiar so far?

So, let’s assume that you will have (or currently have) $1,400 a month in Social Security. Let’s assume further that you are planning on taking 5% from your investments each year to give you an additional $1,458 a month income ($350,000 x 5% = $1,458/mo). The income you are planning on having will therefore total $2,858 per month.

Now, let’s assume for a moment that we have 2001 where the market dropped 40% or 2008 where it dropped nearly as much. Now your investments are worth much less and you are faced with now having income based on 5% of a much lower figure. You now must either take less income or tap into your principal to bring your income back to where it was. If you do tap into your assets to make up for lost income, you now have even fewer assets and even more of an income problem. You can easily see how this can result in a downward spiral.

Besides market risk, how about all the other unexpected expenses that can come along that your income stream cannot handle? What about the cost of long-term care or other non-covered medical expenses? What if you get sued? What if your mother-in-law has to come live with you, or for that matter your newly-divorced daughter? The list of maybes is endless, but you have the idea by now. The fact is, your income is tied to planning for the best case scenario, not the worst case. That is why so many people die broke.

Any retirement plan that depends on assumptions that are beyond your control is in danger of failing.

Depending on market type investments to provide your income in retirement is bound to fail, at least to some extent. If you look at market returns over the last fifty years, there are several periods where the market either declined or did nothing for as long as 18 years. How do you know that will not happen during your retirement years? Coincidentally, the average period of retirement is also 18 years according to the Census Bureau.

Disclaimer: Covell Financial, LLC, is a registered as an Investment Adviser company with the State of Louisiana through the Office of Financial Institutions. We are licensed through them to give financial advice within the State of Louisiana only.