May 20, 2012

March Stock Picks

Amazon is a market linked CD pickAs you may know by now, we offer market linked CDs. We offer these through several banks and all are fully FDIC insured. The CD offerings change each month and can be linked to certain stocks and/or certain commodities. The main advantage over regular CDs is the opportunity to realize much higher returns than regular CDs. I’m going to just talk about the CDs that are linked to stocks.

In each linked stock offering, there are 10 stocks that have been chosen by experts on the basis of expected growth over the mid-term. So, a particular CD will be linked to the collective performance of 10 stocks and the performance will determine how much is earned on the CD. These are professional and very well paid stock analysts who spend a great deal of time sifting through U.S. and foreign stocks to determine the best choices for future positive growth.

We are going to start a new feature here at Covell Financial to talk about which 10 stocks are picked each month for our CDs so that those of you who like to invest in individual stocks can perhaps choose to go along with the experts in your own portfolio choices. It isn’t so much that I think picking individual stocks is a great idea. It is far better to have a pool of 10 stocks that is guaranteed not to lose money since the underlying investment is a CD that cannot lose principal -unlike picking your own stocks. However, it is an interesting exercise to follow what the experts are picking each month. So, here we go with the March picks from one of the Barclays Bank offerings:

  • Amazon.com, Inc.
  • Halliburton Co
  • Walgreen Co
  • Avon Products, Inc.
  • Alcoa, Inc.
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
  • Questcor Pharmaceuticals
  • Chenier Energy, Inc.
  • Omnivision Technologies, Inc.

Government Picks Winners and Losers

We now have the perfect demonstration on how our government decides who the winners and and who the losers are. For anyone who doesn’t think our government has taken upon itself the role of picking winners and losers in nearly every aspect of our lives, bear with me.

You may remember the spotted owl controversy from decades ago. In that controversy, the spotted owl had to be saved and the lumber industry in the Northwest had to be sacrificed to save the little owls. The winner was the owl, the loser was an industry that employed thousands. But it had to be done, because it was going to save the spotted owl from extinction.

Except –the population of spotted owls has declined 40% since the government decided to protect it’s habitat from the greedy loggers. So now there is a new villain on the scene: the barred owl. The barred owl is a bully. The barred owl is larger than the spotted owl and the poor, meek spotted owl is having a hell of a time competing.

In typical fashion, our government has taken upon itself the role of deciding a winner and a loser -and the barred owl is the loser. Starting immediately, the Obama administration has announced that teams of well-armed government thugs are going to disperse throughout the spotted owl habitat and make sure his numbers start going up -by shooting the barred owls.

By the way, the barred owl is the guy on the left -he’s history. The winner is the owl on the right. He has spots, the bad guy has stripes.

Dead barred owlNow, I don’t have an owl in this hunt. But what I do have is an enormous feeling of outrage that the pinheads in Washington think they know the answer to everything. Wasn’t the halt of logging in huge areas of the Northwest with a loss of 30,000 jobs supposed to cure the spotted owl problem? Hell, was it ever really a problem? Now the government has decided that shooting one species of owl is going to save another species of owl. Stay tuned for further explanations from our government about how Obamacare is not going to be about deciding who lives and who dies. That is what this government is all about, deciding who the winners and losers are. Just consider General Motors bond holders —losers. Union workers at General Motors —winners.

End of the Stretch IRA?

End of Stretch IRACurrently pending is Congress in a harmless sounding bill entitled “Highway Investment, Job Creation And Economic Growth Act of 2012.” Buried deep within the bill is a bit of stealth legislation that would kill the concept of the stretch IRA.

The stretch IRA (we also call these an “Inherited IRA”) is a planning concept that has been well-used for years now. It allows the beneficiaries of an IRA, like children and grandchildren, to take the IRA over their life expectancy thereby reducing the income taxes on each distribution and allowing the IRA to keep growing. Before IRAs were allowed to be stretched, or inherited, the non-spouse beneficiary had to take the entire IRA out -and pay all the taxes, within five years.

So, a little known bill has a provision hidden deep inside that will make a huge change to the estate planning of most Americans -and nobody knows a thing about it.

This travesty has been recommended by Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D., Mont.). Under the proposed legislation, starting for deaths next year, most nonspouse inheritors would need to withdraw the entire amount from a traditional IRA within five years. In other words, no more stretch. There’s an exception for a beneficiary who is: disabled; chronically ill; not more than 10 years younger than the employee or IRA owner; or a child who is a minor. Try and imagine the red-tape involved in trying to convince the IRS that a particular beneficiary is “chronically ill.” No, once this happens the stretch will be gone for good.

Another exception would be for Roth IRAs. But, of course, a stretch for these makes no particular sense because no taxes have to be paid on distributions anyway. There is no indication why the Democrat side of Congress thinks this is necessary. Does it have something to do with Evil Rich People? Who knows what goes through the mind of a Congressman these days. The only certain thing is that Congress seems to be focused on punishing those of who save over our lifetimes. It is far past the time that Congress needs a further shake-up message from the voters. Hopefully, that message will be loud and clear in November. Things need to be changed from the top on down.

The Market in Election Years

Welcome to 2012, an “election year”!  Be prepared to read up on how this should be a good year for the stock market.  But will it?

Historically, election years tend to be pretty good for the stock market.  The chart below tells the story since 1928:

Source:  http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howtoinvest/a/electionmarket.htm

As you can see, the market made money in all election years with the exception of three.  (I’ve highlighted the down years in red for you.)  And boy did it have a terrific run until the 2000′s came along!

However, the 2000′s brought us a very different result than expected.  Markets haven’t cooperated as they were supposed to.  What’s going on here?  And what will the future bring?

Behavioral psychologists tell us that the human mind automatically looks for patterns, even when they don’t exist.  As an example, one study charted the results of flipping a coin and then told stock market analysts that the chart was of the movement of a stock (heads meant a day “up” and tails was a day “down”).  Stock analysts had no trouble coming up with predictions as to what would happen to this “stock” in the future.  The clear lesson is that even though there was obviously no pattern, stock analysts found one anyway.  (source:  A Random Walk Down Wall Street – Burton Malkiel.)

Here’s the point: some advisors have suggested to clients that an election year is a good time to jump into the market since they see a pattern of election years being good for the market. The trouble is, now there are two election years that were terrible for investors. It makes a person wonder if perhaps this “election year” idea is just another one of those random patterns that, as humans, we naturally look for even when one doesn’t exist.  So what will the markets do in 2012?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I sure wouldn’t rely on this being an election year as the basis for any decisions.

Create your own pension

412(i) retirement plansVery few people are aware of the attractive provisions of IRS-approved 412(i) plans. Never heard of a 412(i)? That is because only experts in the field of income and asset planning know how to use these plans.

Over the years most employers have gotten away from defined benefit plans for their employees to 401(k) and similar plans. With the defined benefit plan, the employee was guaranteed an amount of income for retirement. With a 401(k), there are no guarantees -you get whatever the 401(k) investments will produce at retirement. In other words, you now take all the risk that there will be enough there for a retirement.

Now, a 412(i) plan is more like a defined benefit plan since it guarantees an amount of retirement income -and the income is guaranteed lifetime. As a matter of fact, these plans come under the control of ERISA as a defined benefit plan, so they have the additional benefit of being protected from creditors under federal law.

Who can benefit from these plans? The ideal candidate is someone who self-employed or owns their own small business and compensates himself/herself fairly highly. Ideally, the person should be between the ages of 40 and 75 or perhaps 15 or so years from a planned retirement, regardless of age.  Further, the person should have few employees since there are employee participation rules.

Given the right circumstances, someone around age 50 who pays (or should pay) themselves around $200,000 per year could perhaps put $70,000 (or even more) into a 412(i) each year until retirement. The amount of retirement income available for a lifetime would be known at the time the plan is put together and would be a guaranteed amount.

Pros. This is an ideal method to get money fast into a retirement plan. It is also ideal as an asset protection strategy since large amounts can be removed from creditor actions. There are no limitations on the amount that can be contributed each year and they cannot be overfunded or underfunded which could result in IRS penalties with some other types of plans.

Cons. Most employees have to participate in the plan, although they can certainly be arranged in such a way that the person contributing gets the lion’s share. The relative ages of the employees is also important. This is not an issue for someone without employees or where the employees are persons that you would want to share in the benefit.

The biggest fear of retirement

Of course, everyone knows the biggest fear that retirees have: dying broke.

According to the accounting firm of Ernst & Young and the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, a household relying on income from Social Security and from $300,000 or less in savings has a 90% of going broke.

How does this happen? According to the research it is a combination of things, but mostly it boils down to unexpected expenses and increasing income on depreciating assets. That is just a fancy way of saying that every time you need money above income, you reduce your assets. And, every time you reduce your assets, you reduce your income because there are fewer assets available to produce income.

Now, here is the big question: is there anything that can be done about this? The answer is YES. It can often be as simple as taking a portion of the existing assets and turning them into lifetime guaranteed income to supplement the Social Security income. When sufficient assets are devoted to producing income, the need to tap into other assets is greatly reduced. We have seen from experience that the odds of going broke can be flipped to a 90% chance of never going broke rather than a 90% chance of outliving assets.

How can anyone guarantee lifetime income?

There are only two places you can go in the United States to get income that is guaranteed to be payable for your lifetime.

One is Social Security provided by the U.S. government, and the other is legal reserve insurance companies.

Social Security is guaranteed only to the extent Congress keeps it’s word on the guarantees. We have already seen the promise that Social Security would be a separate trust fund broken and we have seen the promise that Social Security income would never be taxed broken. It is a hard fact that the rules can be changed any time Congress wants to change the rules. Insurance companies, on the other hand, have to honor the terms of the contract they make with you -they are not free to change things the way Congress can.

Those are the two choices. Nothing else can guarantee a stream of income that will live as long as you do. Stocks, bonds, CDs, mutual funds, or anything else you can name cannot provide lifetime income on a guaranteed basis.

Guaranteed lifetime income from an insurance company -what we call a private pension, is also the perfect supplement to Social Security. If SS income is not, or will not, be enough for you to live on, then a private pension is the answer to increasing lifetime income. It is very simple to calculate exactly how much income you can receive lifetime for an amount of money put into a private pension. Plus, there are numerous other advantages, like safety, creditor protection, predictable growth, and tax deferral.

Buffett must read our Prosperity Report

Warren BuffettI don’t like to recommend stocks, but in the October 26 edition of our newsletter the Prosperity Report, I said the following when asked whether there are stocks I recommend:

“Yes, I do at times. With any stock, it is basically a gamble. However, you can sometimes find bargain prices on stocks with strong fundamentals. At his point people will usually say “OK. Give us an example.”

There are probably quite a few bargain stocks right now, but I happen to like IBM. It is currently trading at $173.32 -up $3.92 for the day, but is still a good buy and worth watching. By way of disclaimer, I own IBM stock myself.”

Two weeks later, on November 10th or so, Warren Buffet announced that he had just purchased over $10 billion of IBM stock for his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. Makes me wonder whether he read the Prosperity Report to get his advice!

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Retirement in Louisiana

Retirement in Louisiana book cover

Retirement in Louisiana, cover

As you may know, we have been very successful over the last dozen years with our book, the Louisiana Legal Advisor which is in it’s Fourth Edition. It is now time to bring out a new book, one that I think is very badly needed in Louisiana. The title, as you can see from the cover of the book, is Retirement in Louisiana.

I think this book is long overdue. For quite a few years now the State of Louisiana has been taking positive legislative action to attract retirees to Louisiana. How many of you even know what new laws have been passed to your benefit? There are also areas of Louisiana that have been certified as ideal retirement communities. Can any of you name those areas?

And what about the laws that have been passed that protect retirement accounts from creditor actions? There are some laws that approach amazing that protect life insurance proceeds, annuities, IRAs and similar accounts from creditor actions -and that include suits by litigation happy plaintiffs!

Yes, there are many good reasons to be retired in Louisiana, and we now have a book to explain those reasons.

It is in production and, with some luck, will be available this Spring.

Income is the Outcome

Going after investment returns is the wrong way to look at retirement investing. Returns mean nothing.

Everyone seems to be looking for getting 7% “return” on their money. Here is why returns mean nothing, and let’s look at an actual case we have:
Bob and Sue had $1 million in their retirement portfolio. In good years they had a 7% return, which they felt good about. They felt especially good since they were taking out 5% per year for income -about $50,000 per year.

And then 2007/2008 hit and the investments that were giving them a 7% return were now worth about $500,000. Now, what do you suppose happens when you keep taking $50,000 out of investments that are now worth $500,000? That’s right, you’re taking a withdrawal of 10% per year which is a recipe for going broke -and doing it fast.

Of course, Bob and Sue could also reduce their income to $25,000 which would bring them back to a 5% withdrawal. By the way, how did Bob and Sue come up with the 5% withdrawal rate in the first place? Because their broker told them it was a safe rate and that their nest egg would still grow safely at a 5% withdrawal rate. Study after study has shown that a 5% withdrawal rate has a 30% chance of leaving you broke during retirement.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to have a guaranteed return of income of 5% of your investments rather than any withdrawal rate that may or may not work? Of course it would -especially if the guarantee was lifetime for both spouses.

That is why we say that a return rate is meaningless as long as the return is calculated against an asset that can shrink or even disappear. What you really want in retirement is cash flow -income- not return. It is income that allows you to live the lifestyle you want to live in retirement.

Our own prediction is for a flat, stagnant market in this decade with inflation starting to become a serious problem in the next few years. If that turns out to be true, return rates are going to become even more meaningless than they are now.

Depending on age and other circumstances, we have been able to get a 6% guaranteed return of income for our clients from their investments. Call and ask me how.

The outcome of good retirement planning is income.

Disclaimer: Covell Financial, LLC, is a registered as an Investment Adviser company with the State of Louisiana through the Office of Financial Institutions. We are licensed through them to give financial advice within the State of Louisiana only.